April 21 Weekend Forecast: 'Unforgettable', 'The Promise', 'Free Fire', and 'Born in China'

While The Fate of the Furious aims to remain on top, multiple smaller films debut this week. Warner Bros.’ erotic thriller Unforgettable looks to open to $7M. Even with an A-list cast and a high budget, The Promise appears to be on track for a disappointing opening under $5M. Action/comedy Free Fire and documentary Born in China also enter with limited openings in under 1500 theaters.

Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and only represent domestic opening. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.

Title Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound
Unforgettable $6,682,000 $7,007,000 $7,473,000
The Promise $4,353,000 $4,915,000 $5,478,000
Free Fire $2,933,000 $3,035,000 $3,137,000
Born in China $5,128,000 $5,276,000 $5,425,000

Unforgettable

The latest film to emulate Fatal Attraction is on track to beat its opening competitors at a modest $7M over 2,400 theaters.

The Promise

The Promise looks to be the year’s biggest flop, given its $100M budget. Its weak social media presence, controversial political backdrop, and lukewarm critical reception will lead to an exceptionally muted debut at around $5M.

Free Fire

From the talented British director Ben Wheatley comes Free Fire, a Tarantino-esque action/comedy with solid social media growth and positive early critic reviews. Our models forecast a solid $3M opening across 1,000 theaters.

Born in China

The latest Disney nature film continues in the trend of family-friendly documentaries about beloved animals. Born in China heads toward similar numbers as Bears and Monkey Kingdom.




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