April 7 Weekend Forecast: 'Smurfs: The Lost Village', 'Going in Style', 'The Case for Christ'
It appears to be a rather quiet weekend at the cinemas as the year’s biggest blockbusters are fast approaching. Of the three films releasing this weekend, Smurfs: The Lost Village is on track to be the superior one. However, it will not quite dominate as well as last week’s winner, The Boss Baby. Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style are projected to open around $15M and $8M, respectively. Meanwhile, The Case for Christ, the latest faith-based film this year, heads toward an opening of close to $6M spanning its release into approximately 1200 theaters.
Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and only represent domestic opening. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.
|Title||Lower Bound||Mean||Upper Bound|
|Smurfs: The Lost Village||$13,713,000||$15,083,000||$16,454,000|
|Going in Style||$6,828,000||$7,812,000||$8,995,000|
|The Case For Christ||$5,183,000||$5,971,000||$6,759,000|
Smurfs: The Lost Village
Is this the final chapter of the Smurfs trilogy? Regardless, Sony Pictures is taking a new approach to this declining yet familiar franchise. Smurfs: The Lost Village has a smaller budget, full CGI, and a new focus on Smurfette (voiced by Demi Lovato). Competition from currently playing family-oriented films and lukewarm social media buzz point to a slightly lower opening than Smurfs 2, which opened to $17.5M back in 2013.
Going in Style
Going in Style is relying on its lovable geriatric cast playing bank robbers in this remake of the 1979 heist comedy. Our models forecast a rather muted performance at slightly below $8M.
The Case for Christ
The adaptation of a bestselling novel, The Case for Christ, to attract fans of faith-based films. What is perhaps the most surprising and a potential gamechanger in its performance is the break from the maudlin and rather antagonizing efforts of similar PureFlix films such as God’s Not Dead which was met with poor critical reception.