August 4 Weekend Forecast: 'Detroit', 'The Dark Tower', 'Kidnap'

Dunkirk proves to be an anomaly this summer, as another new IP looks to struggle with finding footing with today’s audiences. The Dark Tower despite its popular cast and source material is on track to a disappointing sub $20M opening number. Kidnap finally makes iself into theaters after starting its development in 2009 and being delayed from opening since 2015. Lastly, Katheryn Biegelow’s critically acclaimed Detroit expands from limited to wide release.

Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and only represent domestic opening. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.

Title Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound
The Dark Tower $18,340,000 $18,729,000 $19,444,000
Detroit $7,747,000 $8,129,000 $8,272,000
Kidnap $8,445,000 $9,044,000 $9,207,000

The Dark Tower

The Dark Tower faces familiar problems of an adaptation of both alienating original fans who sought a faithful translation to the big screen and being unwelcoming and difficult to new fans.


Despite the usual critical praises, Detroit’s difficult subject matter proves to be a challenge for attracting audiences especially before the awards season. Our models track the film to open to $8M in its wide release expansion.


Halle Berry’s star power along with the film’s relatable themes of family should strike a cord with audiences with a solid $9M opening numbers.

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