February 10 Weekend Forecast: 'The LEGO Batman Movie', 'John Wick: Chapter 2', 'Fifty Shades Darker'

It’s the first blockbuster weekend of the year, and theaters will be packed as moviegoers turn out for a trio of sequels/spin-offs: The LEGO Batman Movie, John Wick: Chapter 2, and Fifty Shades Darker. The former two are expected to outperform previous franchise installments, while Fifty Shades Darker is hurt by an off-weekend Valentine’s Day (next Tuesday) that might provide a delayed boost. Forecasts for this weekend are below.

All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and represent domestic opening only. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.

Title Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound
The LEGO Batman Movie $51,300,000 $53,659,000 $56,018,000
John Wick: Chapter 2 $26,358,000 $26,591,000 $27,544,000
Fifty Shades Darker $42,483,000 $43,787,000 $45,092,000

The LEGO Batman Movie

Helmed by Phil Lord and Chris Miller, the Dartmouth writer-director duo behind Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (2009) and 21 Jump Street (2012), The LEGO Movie (2014) was a star-studded animation hit.

That film’s spin-off, The LEGO Batman Movie, will be the first major animated film in theaters since Sing (2016) last December, and the staggering combination of household name IPs in play — LEGO, DC Comics, and an array of other LEGO licensed characters — will broaden the film’s appeal to younger demographics.

Although Lord and Miller have stepped back into producer roles and handed over the director’s chair to relative newcomer Chris McKay, the duo have earned a measure of goodwill among older audiences for their unique brand of meta-humor, and The LEGO Batman Movie looks primed to expand beyond the usual PG demographic, especially given its impressive advance critic reviews. DC Comics fans fatigued by the seriousness of the live action Extended Universe films may find comfort in this picture’s contrasting levity and wit. Don’t expect The LEGO Batman Movie to be a summer blockbuster hit in the vein of Minions or Finding Dory, but don’t expect it to perform worse than Hotel Transylvania 2 either.

John Wick: Chapter 2

Not your typical pulp action sequel, John Wick: Chapter 2 has already outdone its predecessor in advance critic reviews. The deftly choreographed first installment developed a Tarantino-esque cult fanbase with its classy homages to anime, Hong Kong wuxia, and spaghetti westerns, and this second installment looks to turn out those same fans in droves.

An unexpected appearance by Laurence Fishburne, who last appeared alongside star Keanu Reeves in The Matrix trilogy, is sure to heighten fan anticipation and broaden this sequel’s appeal beyond hardcore fans of the first film.

Fifty Shades Darker

Can the mania surrounding the Fifty Shades franchise continue? It’s unclear whether Fifty Shades Darker has the same novelty appeal as the first film that will allow it to expand its appeal beyond fans of the book series. A release on the weekend before Valentine’s Day (Tuesday) is timely, but the franchise’s second installment looks to fall short of the impressive numbers achieved by the first.

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