February 10 Weekend Roundup: 'The LEGO Movie' Builds a Good Start

The LEGO Batman Movie opened to $53M this weekend, $16M less than its predecessor, which earned $69M on a similar early February release date. Fifty Shades Darker fell dramatically relative to the franchise’s first installment, with a $47M opening compared to $85M in 2015, while John Wick: Chapter 2 debuted to an extremely impressive $30M relative to the first film’s $14M opening.

Our overall percent error this week was under 10% across the three films. The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot BoxOffice.com BoxOfficeMojo.com The-Numbers.com
The LEGO Batman Movie $53M ($51.3M, $53.7M, $56M) $80M $76M $75M
John Wick: Chapter 2 $30.4M ($26.4M, $26.6M, $27.5M) $26.5M $26M $26M
Fifty Shades Darker $46.6M ($42.5M, $43.8M, $45.1M) $46M $43.5M $50M

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for A Cure for Wellness, Fist Fight, and The Great Wall.

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