February 17 Weekend Forecast: 'The Great Wall', 'Fist Fight', 'A Cure for Wellness'

This weekend is the stateside release of big-budget fantasy film The Great Wall, which hopes to topple last weekend’s new blockbusters. However, expect The LEGO Batman Movie and Fifty Shades Darker to have staying power on the charts over new contenders.

Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and represent domestic opening only. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.

Title Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound
The Great Wall $17,407,000 $18,466,000 $19,524,000
Fist Fight $12,310,000 $12,869,000 $13,427,000
A Cure for Wellness $4,742,000 $4,854,000 $4,966,000

The Great Wall

Originally meant to be an international co-production with wide crossover appeal, The Great Wall debuted first in China to lukewarm reception back in December. Add in (ultimately unfounded) accusations of whitewashing surrounding Matt Damon’s role, and you have the recipe for a potentially not so great debut this weekend. Sluggish social growth and negative advance critic reviews will likely result in a modest opening for this big-budget blockbuster.

Fist Fight

The novel combination of Ice Cube and Charlie Day — along with a stacked supporting cast that includes Tracy Morgan, Jillian Bell, Christina Hendricks, Dean Norris, and Kumail Nanjiani — is sure to have fans of R-rated comedies excited. However, relatively slow social media growth in the lead-up to release may prove otherwise. While Fist Fight looks to fall short of the success of Horrible Bosses, it has the advantage of being the only adult comedy in theaters for a number of weeks.

A Cure for Wellness

Director Gore Verbinski’s first and only entry in the horror genre was his widely successful remake of The Ring (2002), which he followed up with a decade of Johnny Depp-helmed flicks: the first three Pirates of the Caribbean films, Rango, and The Lone Ranger.

His first film since 2013, A Cure for Wellness is a high-concept, original horror film boasting a 2.5 hour runtime. While it might prove attractive to the art house crowd, middling advance reviews and the continued legs of Split will likely result in a very modest opening. Last-minute social growth may not achieve enough momentum to make this a sleeper hit.

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