February 24 Weekend Forecast: 'Get Out', 'Rock Dog', 'Collide'
Get Out, Jordan Peele’s directorial debut, looks to open this weekend with a perfect Rotten Tomatoes score (across more than 100 critic reviews). Produced by Jason Blum, who also worked on last month’s M. Night Shyamalan sleeper hit Split, Get Out is poised to make a strong opening for a horror film, let alone the directorial debut of a former sketch comedy actor. Chinese animated co-production Rock Dog and former Relativity project Collide will open alongside Get Out but are likely to gross less than $5M each.
Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and represent domestic opening only. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.
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While Peele’s reputation and the comedic elements of Get Out may broaden the film’s appeal beyond typical horror fans, the overtly political premise may also limit its appeal to certain audiences. According to last-minute social data from our Sentinel Audience Relationship Management (ARM) software, Get Out has a Pilot Social Metric of 3.2x, which represents very strong week-of-release growth, potentially spurred by its perfect critic reviews.
However, this level of last-minute growth doesn’t meet our strict criteria for applying our short-range adjustment model, as we did with The Bye Bye Man and Split. Although we expect Get Out to top the box office this weekend, it likely won’t clear $30M.
After the untimely bankruptcy of Relativity and four subsequent release date changes by new distributor Open Road, Collide has unsurprisingly seen very little social media growth. Negative advance critic reviews look to tank any remaining momentum with audiences. Collide will be lucky to break $2M this weekend.
Lack of social media growth and negative critic reviews look to hurt Rock Dog as well, despite a voice cast that includes Luke Wilson and J.K. Simmons. Similar to The Great Wall, Rock Dog had an earlier premiere in China that also underperformed, signaling a likely lukewarm reception stateside this weekend.