February 3 Weekend Roundup: 'Rings' Less Than Viral

Rings opened to $13M this weekend, slightly less than Split, which still continues to dominate the late winter box office. The Space Between Us dramatically underperformed expectations, earning just less than $4M despite social media indications that it would at least break $5M and potentially inch toward $8M.

Our confidence intervals accurately forecasted Rings, but we were 36.8% off on The Space Between Us. Other box office forecasting services had at least 50% error.

The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot BoxOffice.com BoxOfficeMojo.com The-Numbers.com
Rings $13M ($11.5M, $12.8M, $14M) $10.5M $13.2M $13M
The Space Between Us $3.8M ($5.2M, $5.4M, $5.6M) $6.3M $6.2M $6M

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick 2, and The LEGO Batman Movie.

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