January 13 Weekend Forecast: 'The Bye Bye Man', 'Sleepless', 'Monster Trucks'
This week, we have the chance to do something unexpected.
Throughout each week, our data scientists use our in-house Sentinel Audience Relationship Management (ARM) software to monitor films on various social media platforms. In the rare case that a film attracts a significant level of last-minute buzz, we can adjust our model’s predictions to better reflect audience trends.
Although it’s only the second week of the year, we’ve decided to do just that. We’re updating our model’s standard forecast for The Bye Bye Man and completely replacing the original confidence interval with a revised staff estimate of $13.1M for the full 4-day MLK weekend. Find out how we calculated this below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and represent domestic opening only. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance.
|Title||Lower Bound||Mean||Upper Bound||Adjusted Estimate|
|The Bye Bye Man||$8,930,000||$9,695,000||$10,459,000||$13,088,000|
The Bye Bye Man
For every film, our team calculates a proprietary Pilot Social Metric based on a variety of data gathered from multiple social media platforms. A typical film might score 1.0x given a normal amount of buzz on social media and in the press.
The Bye Bye Man received an unprecedented score of 3.5x in the week leading up to its release, despite extremely negative Rotten Tomatoes ratings. Moreover, as a non-franchise horror film with a limited built-in audience, The Bye Bye Man seemed unlikely to outperform its low budget even with the extended weekend. Despite our gut feelings, the data clearly shows otherwise — and with this extra traction, as well as low in-genre competition — our adjustment model projects The Bye Bye Man will clear $13.1M.
Unfortunately, Sleepless suffers from the opposite problem as The Bye Bye Man. The film debuts in a mere 1,800 theaters and shows very little social media traction, with almost no official reviews online. We gave the film a Pilot Social Metric of 1.0x. The confidence interval generated by our model is also extremely small relative to other films — just $300K, or 3% of the mean prediction. This can signify lower variance, or greater certainty that the actual box office will fall within this interval.
This throwback CGI creature feature looks to dramatically fall short of its 9-figure budget with a flat opening weekend. However, the film’s PG rating and the lack of new family films on a holiday weekend may drive more audiences to take a chance on Monster Trucks despite poor early reviews.