January 13 Weekend Roundup: 'The Bye Bye Man' Surprises

Against all odds, The Bye Bye Man was the winner of the weekend, doubling its budget with $15.2 million by the end of the holiday. Although poor reviews may hurt the film’s legs, word-of-mouth and social buzz may have played a critical role in its early success.

On Friday, we took the unprecedented step of using a special model to adjust our standard confidence interval prediction, based on the large last-minute social media surge we observed for The Bye Bye Man. We’re proud to have gotten within $2.1M of the real figure (13.8% error). Our confidence intervals underpredicted Sleepless by a mere $600K (6% error) and accurately captured the performance of Monster Trucks.

The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot BoxOffice.com BoxOfficeMojo.com The-Numbers.com
The Bye Bye Man $15.2M $13.1M $9.5M $9.1M $10M
Sleepless $9.8M ($8.9M, $9M, $9.2M) $7.5M $6.3M $9M
Monster Trucks $14.2M ($13.4M, $15.1M, $16.8M) $10M $8.4M $14M

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for Split, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, and The Founder.

Share this story