January 20 Weekend Roundup: 'Split' Succeeds

Split opened to one of the top 5 best January weekends ever — an impressive feat for a low-budget horror film. The film’s production costs are likely even lower than that of fellow January record-holder Cloverfield.

Boasting $40M, Split confounded most in the box office tracking industry. However, our adjusted estimate of $36.1M is a mere $3.9M off (9.8% error). As we did with The Bye Bye Man last week, we used our adjustment model to calculate a revised estimate for Split based on a Pilot Social Metric of 3.9x. We determine this figure through a proprietary formula that analyzes short-term social network activity and growth across various platforms. Only when a film experiences abnormally high growth do we use our adjustment model instead of the standard short-term forecasting model. (For long-term forecasts greater than a few weeks, we use a separate set of models and can provide relatively accurate results up to two years prior to release.)

Our confidence intervals slightly overpredicted xXx by a mere $1.5M (7.5% error) and accurately captured the performance of The Founder.

The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot BoxOffice.com BoxOfficeMojo.com The-Numbers.com
Split $40M $36.1M $25.5M $24M $22M
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage $20M ($21.5M, $22.4M, $23.3M) $18M $21M $21M
The Founder $3.8M ($3.8M, $4M, $4.2M) $3.5M $4M $5M

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, A Dog’s Purpose, and Gold.

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