January 27 Weekend Forecast: 'A Dog's Purpose', 'Resident Evil', 'Gold'
After the incredible debut of Split last week, the box office will cool off this weekend with A Dog’s Purpose, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, and Gold. There’s a relatively low amount of social media chatter surrounding these films, and none of the three ultimately scored higher than a Pilot Social Metric of 2.0x, meaning that it’s unlikely that any will be an unexpected breakout hit.
Below, you’ll find our predictions for this weekend. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and represent domestic opening only. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.
|Title||Lower Bound||Mean||Upper Bound|
|A Dog’s Purpose||$15,687,000||$16,486,000||$17,284,000|
|Resident Evil: The Final Chapter||$12,926,000||$16,365,000||$19,804,000|
A Dog’s Purpose
It’s rare that a PG-rated family drama will find itself surrounded by controversy, but A Dog’s Purpose found its red-carpet premiere canceled after a leaked video purportedly showed a dog being mistreated on set. Despite PETA calls for a boycott of the film, its social media growth has not slowed or reversed, and multiple cast members have publicly refuted the video as being misleading. Our model forecasts a mean opening gross of $16.5M, but we wouldn’t be surprised if the lack of novel family fare this weekend drives revenue closer to $18M.
Once thought as a serious awards contender, Gold has been lost in the flow as other titles gain traction with audiences. Despite showing some last-minute social media growth, Gold never gained enough pre-release buzz to achieve a large opening. Matthew McConaughey will surely drive viewers to the film, as will some early-January press around the film’s Golden Globe nomination for Best Original Song, but this is far from the next The Wolf of Wall Street or even War Dogs.
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter
Although it has only been a little over four years since the franchise’s previous installment in 2012, the Resident Evil series comes to a close with The Final Chapter. Social media tracking suggests limited appeal outside the video game’s core audience, and we expect this film to have the lowest debut of the franchise. Previous entries have debuted at over $20M, but The Final Chapter looks to be closer to a $15M or less weekend.