January 6 Weekend Roundup: 'Underworld' Underperforms?

Alongside our new weekly box office forecast series, we’ll also be publishing a weekend roundup to analyze our accuracy compared to some other folks in the movie tracking industry.

The lone film from last week’s forecast, Underworld: Blood Wars, opened with almost $13.7 million this past weekend. It’s a franchise low, as the previous 4 installments each opened with over $20M, and all except the first film also premiered in January.

The below chart shows our confidence interval prediction (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and the film’s actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot BoxOffice.com BoxOfficeMojo.com The-Numbers.com
Underworld: Blood Wars $13.7M ($9.3M, $13.9M, $18.5M) $13.5M $15M $12.5M

Our model fully captured the film’s first weekend gross within its confidence interval, and our mean forecast was off by less than $200K (1.5% error). Though our confidence interval was large, this reflected high variance in our model’s forecast, and represented greater uncertainty regarding this film’s potential to over- or under-perform. Our in-depth subscriber’s report on Underworld: Blood Wars takes a deeper dive into the film’s results, and also outlines potential marketing opportunities relative to the franchise’s specific audience demographics.

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for The Bye Bye Man, Sleepless, and Monster Trucks.




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