July 21 Weekend Forecast: 'Dunkirk', 'Girls Trip', 'Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Visionary director Christopher Nolan returns with a new original film Dunkirk, that critics are raving about. They are already claiming it as the year’s first masterpiece and Oscar contender. The blockbuster auteur tackles a challenging and less-visited war genre and is projected to open at $52.4M according to our models, marking an improvement over Interstellar, which opened at $47.5M back in 2014.

Girls Trip seems to greatly benefit from its stars on social media and its female-focused narrative. Our models’ final prediction is $28M for this raunchy, crowd-pleasing comedy.

Valerian and the City Of A Thousand Planets continues to be overlooked under Dunkirk’s shadow and the sea of established franchises. The film appears to open at a mere $16M despite its massive budget.

Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and only represent domestic opening. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.

Title Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound
Dunkirk $50,125,000 $52,445,000 $54,547,000
Girls Trip $27,662,000 $28,201,000 $29,352,000
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $15,431,000 $16,346,000 $17,742,000


Christopher Nolan’s WWII epic seems to be his most acclaimed film in years with a promise of awe-inspiring spectacles for the senses.

Girls Trip

Girls Trip is projected to make more than its entire budget in opening weekend, supported by strong critical and audience reception.

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Luc Besson’s $200M+ budget film seems to struggle against strong competition over similar demographics.

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