July 21 Weekend Roundup: 'Dunkirk' and the Girls Deliver

As one of the year’s first best picture contenders, Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk delivered an impressive $50.5M opening numbers. Girls Trip also outperformed expectations with a surprising $31.2M. Meanwhile Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets stumbled with $17M. All three predictions were very close within our models’ confidence intervals.

The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot BoxOffice.com BoxOfficeMojo.com The-Numbers.com
Dunkirk $50.5M ($50.1M, $52.4M, $54.5M) $55.5M $51M $47M
Girls Trip $31.2M ($27.7M, $28.2M, $29.3M) $27.5M $26M $21M
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $17M ($15.4M, $16.3M, $17.7M) $17.5M $17M $19M

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for The Emoji Movie and Atomic Blonde.

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