March 10 Weekend Forecast: 'Kong: Skull Island'

Our single forecast for this week is for Kong: Skull Island, Warner Brothers’ second entry in the MonsterVerse cinematic universe after 2014’s Godzilla reboot. Boasting an A-list cast that includes Tom Hiddleston, Samuel L. Jackson, John Goodman, and Brie Larson, Kong: Skull Island looks to tell a much different story than Peter Jackson’s 2005 King Kong remake, which hewed closely to the original 1933 black-and-white classic.

Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and represent domestic opening only. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.

Title Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound
Kong: Skull Island $63,375,000 $65,171,000 $66,967,000

Kong: Skull Island

A PG-13 rating, bankable A-list stars, and a new King Kong story allow this film to cast a relatively wide net across different potential audience segments. We’ve forecast a mean opening of $65M, well above other industry estimates, partially due to extremely strong social growth this week leading up to release. Although lingering competition from Logan might dampen this film’s first weekend prospects, it looks to outperform the 2005 film by a decent margin. However, Kong: Skull Island looks to fall well short of the $93M opening that Godzilla had in 2014. It’s at this time unclear whether the next films in this franchise will continue to follow a downward trend.

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