March 17 Weekend Roundup: 'Beauty' Debuts to Historic High

Beauty and the Beast shattered box office records, opening to a historic $174M this weekend. Although our model was relatively conservative about forecasting this unique outlier, we’re pleased to observe that our overall error was approximately 15%. Our short-range models typically reach a minimum of 80% accuracy across a set of thousands of films, and this historic opening was no exception. We were also able to accurately forecast The Belko Experiment within our confidence interval.

The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot
Beauty and the Beast $174M ($142.7M, $145.7M, $148.7M) $175M $168M $168M
The Belko Experiment $4.1M ($4M, $4.8M, $5.7M) $3.3M $4.7M $3M

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for Power Rangers, Life, and CHiPs.

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