March 24 Weekend Roundup: 'Power Rangers' Continues the Nostalgia Trip
This weekend, Power Rangers opened to just over $40M, making it a top 10 opener for Lionsgate. Our projections for both Power Rangers and new R-rated comedy CHiPs were highly accurate — both films fell well within the intervals output by our model and each film’s mean prediction was less than 3% off the weekend’s actual box office figures.
Although our model slightly overpredicted Life, it is certainly a surprise that a $58M sci-fi film helmed by Ryan Reynolds and Jake Gyllenhaal would fail to break $15M in its opening weekend. To an extent, our model anticipated this underperformance, as its final forecast was already a 30% down-revision relative to its 3-week projections, in spite of the film’s respectable social media growth during this time.
Nonetheless, our mean accuracy for this weekend across the full slate is still well above our model’s 80% minimum benchmark. The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.
|Power Rangers||$40.5M||($38.6M, $39.7M, $40.9M)||$36M||$38M||$37M|
|Life||$12.6M||($16.4M, $18.8M, $21.2M)||$16.5M||$18M||$20M|
|CHiPs||$7.6M||($6.7M, $7.4M, $8.2M)||$8.25M||$7M||$8M|
We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for Ghost in the Shell and The Boss Baby.