March 3 Weekend Forecast: 'Logan', 'Before I Fall', 'The Shack'

Logan, Hugh Jackman’s highly anticipated final outing as Wolverine, hits theaters this weekend. To make the film even more poignant of a send-off, Patrick Stewart has also stated in interviews that he’s likely done playing the character of Professor X as well. In spite of an R rating earned by its dark, post-apocalyptic tenor, Logan looks to be the clear box office winner against the duo of book adaptations also premiering this week: YA flick Before I Fall and faith-oriented The Shack.

Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and represent domestic opening only. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.

Title Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound
Logan $85,595,000 $87,114,000 $88,634,000
Before I Fall $6,035,000 $6,262,000 $6,489,000
The Shack $12,457,000 $14,067,000 $15,677,000


Extremely positive advance reviews and fan nostalgia will likely lead Logan to one of the better opening weekends of the X-Men franchise. Despite an R rating, both hardcore fans and casual moviegoers alike will come out for Hugh Jackman’s last film as Wolverine, the end of a 17-year era.

Before I Fall

Although the YA novel of the same name was well-received at publication, many fans of the book have aged considerably since its original release in 2010. The Groundhog Day-inspired premise will definitely intrigue some younger viewers, but weak social media activity leading up to release suggests an opening well below $10M.

The Shack

Though The Shack isn’t produced by Pure Flix — best known for films such as God’s Not Dead and its sequel — one might easily make that assumption. Similar to those films, The Shack has received negative reviews from critics but nonetheless looks to make a respectable debut with a strong showing from faith-based audiences. The film might also cause the same theological controversies as its source material, but the prominent role of Oscar-winner Octavia Spencer might also increase its appeal to secular audiences.

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