March 3 Weekend Roundup: 'Logan' Claws Its Way to the Top

Logan debuted to the 3rd-best X-Men opening ever, just $2M behind X-Men: Days of Future Past and $14M behind X-Men: The Last Stand. (Although Deadpool technically falls into the same franchise, it’s omitted from this ranking because its cast and story are completely different.) Both Before I Fall and The Shack performed as expected, and although our forecast slightly overpredicted Before I Fall, our percent error for Logan and The Shack was under 5%.

The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot
Logan $88.4M ($85.6M, $87.1M, $88.6M) $86M $74M $85M
Before I Fall $4.7M ($6.0M, $6.3M, $6.5M) $3.5M $4M $5M
The Shack $16.2M ($12.5M, $14.1M, $15.7M) $12.5M $12.5M $12M

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for Kong: Skull Island.

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