May 19 Weekend Roundup: Aliens edges out Guardians

Alien: Covenant edged out Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in a narrow battle for number one with an opening of $36M, which is just slightly outside of our confidence interval. Meanwhile, Everything, Everything surprised many industry predictions at $12M spanning approximately 2,800 theaters. Lastly, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul proved to be a dud at the box office with a $7.2M opening, ultimately suggesting that the series has finally run out of steam.

The below chart shows our forecasts (lower bound, mean, upper bound) from last Friday next to several other industry forecasts and actual performance.

Title Actual Pilot
Alien: Covenant $36M ($37.4M, $38.9M, $40.4M) $35.9M $41.4M $38M
Everything, Everything $12M ($8.1M, $9.1M, $10.1) $9.5M $8.5M $11M
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $7.2M ($8.2M, $9.4M, $10.6M) $9.0M $11.6M $10M

We’ll be back later this week with forecasts for Baywatch and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tells No Tales

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