May 26 Weekend Forecast: 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales', 'Baywatch'

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales marks the return of Jack Sparrow, one of the most iconic characters in contemporary cinema. No doubt the latest Pirates film will perform strongly in international markets as the rest of the series has done, but our data supports a continued decline of the series domestically since its peak with the second film, Dead Man’s Chest.

Critical reception appears to be at its lowest in the series as the film follows the mediocre reactions of On Stranger Tides after a long six year break, suggesting possible difficulty in attracting a new casual fanbase. Our models’ final forecast for the opening numbers are around $73M over approximately 4,200+ theaters.

Meanwhile, Baywatch is on track to open at slightly below $37M over the Memorial Day Weekend. Critical reception is even lower than Pirates, but the producers are banking on the fame of celebrities Dwayne Johnson and Zac Efron to overcome this obstacle.

Forecasts for this weekend are below. All dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest thousand, and only represent domestic opening. A larger confidence interval may represent greater variance. Confidence intervals may not be normally distributed.

Title Lower Bound Mean Upper Bound
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $69,740,000 $73,214,000 $76,688,000
Baywatch $36,012,000 $36,867,000 $37,723,000

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

The swashbuckling adventure series looks to return the series to its former glory with the continuation of story arcs for characters who were sorely missed in the last installment.

Baywatch

Baywatch aims to replicate the success of reboots of popular TV series such as 21 Jump Street and hopes to not be prone to the same pitfalls of duds such as CHiPs.




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